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The is an irony.
Improved efficiencies
attained during the 1990's have decreased the need for labor. Instead
of realizing the labor savings, many
companies hired excessively in the fallacious belief that
additional people would magically
provide additional growth.
These companies failed to understand that excess employees inhibit
efficiency and ensure unwarranted costs.
Explanation:
Over the last two decades automation, that is, the effective implementation of
computer technology, increased productivity in every industry. The
efficiency of computer systems now in place is far greater than that of 20 years ago. Observe retail store shelves as retailers replenish inventories with SKUs that sell
and clear out those that fail to move. Manufacturing also benefits from greatly
increased efficiencies through the use of robotics, inventory controls, materials
sciences, longer lasting equipment, and the results of over-powered automated methods.
These elements add up to a decreased need for labor
units per productive unit output. Aggravating this increased efficiency is the fact
that there was severe over-employment during the last half of the 1990's due to
inexperienced managements that believed the way to grow their companies was to hire people
to produce more output to fuel the imagined growth. That dream growth never
materialized and continues to dissolve in the ongoing corrective phase. This is
exemplified by real estate values in Silicon Valley and office leasing
occupancy
rates.
Summary: Too many people were
hired for too few jobs during the 1990's
overheated expansion and its resultant bubble. Many workers had their specific task loads diluted when too many people were
assigned to too few tasks. Over employment is now
gradually being unwound. Therefore
the US economy will experience an unemployment rate that returns to its
equilibrium of between 5% and 6.5%. Only product and service developments
and business expansion will create a need over
several years for those workers who
never should have been employed redundantly. |