Today's Employment Prognosis

  Thousands Of Jobs Will Not Return In The Next Years
 
 
The is an irony. Improved efficiencies attained during the 1990's have decreased the need for labor. Instead of realizing the labor savings, many companies hired excessively in the fallacious belief that additional people would magically provide additional growth. These companies failed to understand that excess employees inhibit efficiency and ensure unwarranted costs.

Explanation:   Over the last two decades automation, that is, the effective implementation of computer technology, increased productivity in every industry. The efficiency of computer systems now in place is far greater than that of 20 years ago. Observe retail store shelves as retailers replenish inventories with SKUs that sell and clear out those that fail to move.  Manufacturing also benefits from greatly increased efficiencies through the use of robotics, inventory controls, materials sciences, longer lasting equipment, and the results of over-powered automated methods.

These elements add up to a decreased need for labor units per productive unit output. Aggravating this increased efficiency is the fact that there was severe over-employment during the last half of the 1990's due to inexperienced managements that believed the way to grow their companies was to hire people to produce more output to fuel the imagined growth.  That dream growth never materialized and continues to dissolve in the ongoing corrective phase. This is exemplified by real estate values in Silicon Valley and office leasing occupancy rates.

Summary:  Too many people were hired for too few jobs during the 1990's overheated expansion and its resultant bubble. Many workers had their specific task loads diluted when too many people were assigned to too few tasksOver employment is now gradually being unwound. Therefore the US economy will experience an unemployment rate that returns to its equilibrium of between 5% and 6.5%. Only product and service developments and business expansion will create a need over several years for those workers who never should have been employed redundantly.


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