Use any reasonable definition of "Bear Market" and answer the question:

Is the bull market that was born in the early 1980s, resting, broken, or dead?

How many stocks are down, how far down from highs made over 8 months ago, for how long, across how many industries?  How many stocks are up over the recent 6 months?  Are the major headlining indices distorted due to the algorithm used (that is, capitalization weighting) or the lemming-like focusing upon specific groups of companies (one day from techs to consumer products, the next week from consumer products to financial services, and so on)?

What would provide the unbiased observer the reason to think any group or individual stock might go up?

Is it more likely that a given stock will go down or up?

Are there divergences in related industry groups and major indices?

When the markets correct will the narrow group of tech winners expand to include the majority of stocks that have declined over the recent period?  Or will the irrational winners of recent months collapse and take the recent losers down even more?  In other words, when market psychology turns negative, will that same psychology induce people to sell and then turn around and buy or will they be so terrified that they are ecstatic to have salvaged their cash?

Regarding the narrowing cone selection process of favor:

The universe of stocks in favor has been narrowing into a cone for nearly a year.  This focusing and narrowing has brought us to the point of frenzy.   The rule is:

--  Dump everything not in the favored genres.

--  Buy anything in the favored genres.

This explains the divergence seen in the indices. The ultimate point is this process leads us along a chaotic path to the singularity of nothing left to buy.   What does that say about what to trade?  Sell?

Regarding earnings:

What could make earnings increase over the intermediate term other than technological efficiencies?  Name an industry that has pricing capability.  Name an industry that is not over-staffed.  Technology companies are under-staffed with creative people, but suffer the same relative low competence level as service industries, manufacturing, etc.

Regarding costs of production:

How much more can companies cut costs?  Can unit volume increase and thus cut cost per unit much more?  If the macro consumer-driven economy slows and layoffs occur, who will purchase those increased unit volumes and at what prices?

Regarding stock yields:

Cash and bonds offer attractive opportunities relative to stocks.   But they are not in favor  ---  not fun nor sexy.

Regarding psychology:

Is real estate overvalued?  That is, has it had a rapid increase relative to rational demand?  Will interest rates increase and buyer attitudes cool and cause a slowdown?  What if potential buyers hole up  ---  stay put?  Does the railroad train then slow with a derailment of some cars in the middle and rear?

Regarding commodity prices:

Are there more people needing more food?  Why are commodity prices hitting new lows and many at multi-year lows.  What is the potential for oil prices to damage the perfect equation of the macro economy?

Regarding the Phillips curve:

Why did the Phillips curve work best and only really work in the USA?  Note it worked as a rational, high-level explanation.  Obviously it worked because it is the purest implementation of capitalism!  Elsewhere there have been wage and price controls, commodity shortages and oligopolies.

Regarding actual unemployment:

How is unemployment measured?  What elements are measured?

Are all people being counted and categorized as either employed or unemployed? Have there always existed so many home-workers and non-full time workers?

Are there more "comfortably welI-off" people not working, but still consuming?  Are these people unemployed;  are they employed as consumers?  Where do welfare and other entitlement payments that add to consumerism fit?  They do fuel this consumer-driven economy.

If adults and children receive entitlements and spend those billions of dollars are they consumers?  Are they employed?

Inflation is dead  --  this time for sure, again:

The CPI and other indicators including grocery and automobile shopping verify the lack of producer pricing control.   Oil spurts upward quickly, but then retreats (for political and business reasons).   How about that tobacco stuff?  Well, that is so politically incorrect that we can just pretend it is transparent  --  as transparent as a brick wall is to a blind man.

But look at financial assets and the quasi-financial asset, the primary residence as measured by rents and mortgages.  These two classes of assets have disproportionately exploded in a massive inflationary move.  They have inflated so much as to have taken over a disproportionately large portion of the consumer's economic pie and his economic interest.  With stocks and real estate so much fun to buy from our Internet keyboards, who has time for other pastimes?  There is no tolerance on the part of the consumer to 'pay-up' for a pizza, apples and shaving cream.

Inflation is thriving in the financial and housing markets.  These market items are important in civilized life but have become disproportionately large in today's economic pie.  The equilibrium will return.  Results will be consistent with other inflationary moves.

Regarding arrogance and ignorance:

Are well-paid workers saving?  Are well-paid workers spending indiscriminately?  Would well-paid workers not experienced in economic downturns know enough to save and spend wisely?

Is the "I want it" psychology firmly entrenched?  Do we all have the right to have most everything we want now?

Regarding "We are in the longest economic boom in history":

Is this why we are so very happy, contented, pleased to be alive and so pleasant to neighbors, friends, strangers?

What is road rage?  How do those retail clerks hold their jobs?  Why doesn't my personal banker even return my call?

Regarding the future:

Imagine how nasty things will become after the correction....

Note:  As of April 5, 2000, 67.8 percent of stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 declined 20% or more from their 52-week peaks and 84.9% of stocks in the Nasdaq composite according to Salomon Smith Barney.