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The Process Of Going Bust Is The
Process Of Damaging Confidence & Locking Credit Markets |
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Credit-unworthy borrowers
contract for sub-prime mortgages
& loans on inflating home
prices. |
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Banks & other
lenders sell mortgages to
government sponsored entities,
Fannie, Freddie, & Ginnie Mae. |
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Investment
banks purchase packages of
mortgages & securitize them
often with several tranches.
Rating agencies up-rate
securitized derivatives &
tranches. |
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Investors
across the world purchase
securitized derivatives that
often have complex tranche
structures & mal-estimated
ratings. Credit default swaps
are purchased. |
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Sub-prime
mortgage & loan holders default
in relatively large numbers
lowering derivative valuations &
eventually damaging
institutional counter-party
confidence & freezing credit
markets. |
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Interest rates were held low. |
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Interest rates trend upward, mortgages
reset, defaults begin. |
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1.) Credit-unworthy
borrowers apply for standard & sub-prime mortgages
& loans. |
2.) Banks & other lenders
write mortgages & loans
in return for ownership in over-valued
assets contracted by unworthy
borrowers. |
3.) Banks &
other lenders sell
sub-prime mortgage & low-grade loans to government sponsored
entities. They receive cash to continue
lending activities. |
4.)
Investment banks buy &
repackage sub-prime mortgages & low-grade
loans with
higher-rated mortgages & loans from GSEs. |
5.) Rating agencies
up-rate computer-devised & packaged
derivatives consisting of mortgage-backed securities,
collateralized debt obligations& loans. |
6.) Investing entities
including sovereign funds, hedge funds, and
varieties of funds around the world, purchase
derivatives from investment banks using
questionable ratings to judge safety. |
7.) Investors around the
world purchase credit default swaps for
additional safety guarantees. |
8.) Sub-prime mortgage &
loan holders defaulting increases, lowering
valuations on all derivatives, thereby
over-activating CDSs. Credit markets, unable
to reach consistent valuations, lock shut. |
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As mortgage holders
and loan borrowers default in larger numbers, their
non-performing mortgages and loans become an
ever-greater proportion of the holding of
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, banks,
investment banks, sovereign funds, hedge
funds, and many investor portfolios. These
holdings include mortgages,
loans and the derivatives
created from them. Derivatives
including MBSs, CDOs, & others
consist of contrived, variable
dispersions of wide ranges of
credit qualities. Once defaults
start in significant numbers, the
flow from banks to investors
stops and the chain of credit stops flowing.
New credit is not available.
Institutions stop trusting other
institutions. Derivatives cannot be valued.
Derivatives become tainted
and illiquid. Trading slows drastically.
Credit markets lose their
ability to evaluate old and
potential debt. Trading halts.
Lending halts. As credit default swaps
are activated, they reach untenable valuations. |
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Originators and buyers of CDSs
cannot reconcile valuations to close
positions. Potential consumer
and business lending freezes. Economies slow.
Industries slow production.
Service businesses slow. Companies lay off
employees.
GDPs
experience slowing growth and
declining activity. Recession
begins. Business slows further.
Growth turns negative.
Unemployment increases.
Recession gains magnitude. If
unemployment becomes large,
recession is relabeled
depression.
This sort of
credit-destruction is seen as
deflating a bubble. At some
point in the phase, governments
initiate artificial changes in
interest rates, money
quantities, and create
lower-paying infrastructure and
bureaucratic jobs. Government
interference disrupts business
activities and labor markets. It
forces suspension of natural
market-adjustment activities due
to anticipation of further
intervention combined with
recent interventions and their
consequences. |
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The following is further
identification of significant participants
in the business credit cycle. It presents
institutional roles, mechanisms, and responses within the
credit-flow chain over recent decades. The
world is spiraling downward while being
pushed over the brink by the US Federal
Reserve Bank and several other national
banking entities' attempts at coordinated
inflating of money supplies using currencies
backed by nothing but additional credit.
Government-chartered entities provide a connection
between capital markets and mortgage
borrowers. These
public
corporations and
government sponsored entities
purchase and securitize
mortgages from
lenders. That process ensures
that capital is
consistently available to
those lenders for home buyers.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
raised capital by
selling stock to the
public and
investing institutions.
These government entities
were given investor-friendly names
derived from the acronyms of their official names. These include
Federal
National Mortgage Association,
known as
Fannie
Mae, founded in 1938 and chartered by
Congress in 1968;
the
Federal Home Loan Mortgage
Corporation, known as Freddie Mac,
today insolvent, chartered by Congress in
1970.
The
Government
National Mortgage Association,
Ginnie Mae,
created in 1968, is the only US agency whose
mortgage-backed securities are government
guaranteed.
Ginnie Mae is the
main supplier of loans for
the Federal Housing
Administration, FHA. The volume of
loans approved for insurance by the Federal
Housing Administration
increased dramatically over recent years
as less credit-worthy borrowers
who failed to meet bank
borrowing standards flocked to
government programs.
Each
government sponsored
entity uses
investor capital
(money) to purchase mortgages from banks and
other consumer lending businesses such as
Countrywide. Those purchases cleared these
banks and lenders' books
of mortgage liabilities, thereby
providing
fresh, new money to lend
to other worthy and unworthy borrowers.
These government
sponsored entities function to acquire
mortgages and return capital to the mortgage
market.
In 1977, the US Congress
passed the Community Reinvestment Act, CRA.
Its objective was to provide mortgages to
less-credit worthy borrowers. This
good-natured plan was corrupted by community
organizing groups in the name of fairness.
However their "fairness" did not fully
factor in "credit worthy" as a borrowing
prerequisite. This activity spawned the
now-infamous sub-prime mortgage.
Community organizing
groups such as ACORN working at the grass
roots level pestered, petitioned, extorted,
and threatened major banks and their top
management with negative publicity and
physical injury if they failed to accede
into lending to people who could not qualify
under reasonable lending standards. Major
banks and mortgage houses were forced
to lend to uncredit-worthy
people in the name of
equal and fair housing opportunities.
Unworthy
borrowers were handed billions of dollars
with little to no documentation. There were
borrowers whose documentation displayed in
simple arithmetic their inability to pay
down their obligations. |
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The mortgages
purchased by the government sponsored
entities were then packaged by investment
banking institutions. These institutions included HSBC,
Lehman, Credit Suisse, Bear Stearns,
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Morgan
Stanley, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, and
others. They used computer systems designed
by financial miscreants and programmed by physicists and engineers
to slice
& dice mortgages and debts into complex,
multi-tranched derivatives of indeterminate
qualities. These
collateralized and securitized instruments
were then variously rated to support
their sale to inadequately-informed and
misinformed investors including hedge funds to
sovereign funds and every type in
between.
The US Federal
Reserve Bank held interest rates
artificially low. This allowed
financial assets and housing assets to become
inflated into the shape of many classic
financial bubbles.
After years
of this taking-in of new
mortgage debt from banks and mortgage
brokers, repackaging
it into mortgage-backed securities (MBS),
collateralized debt obligations (CDO),
surreptitiously insured by credit
default swaps (CDS), the
credit system collapsed when too many
unworthy people failed to meet their payment
obligations.
Domestic and foreign investors
were drawn to the full faith
and credit implied and
explicitly guaranteed
by
the US government. National banks,
treasuries, and individual and institutional
investors each and all purchased varieties
and tranches of derivatives over recent years.
Major financial
institutions in all industrialized nations
and several national treasuries are today
near-insolvent due the illiquid and
near-worthless valuations of derivatives
such as MBSs and CDOs they purchased.
Buyers of
mortgage-backed securities and
collateralized debt obligations were unaware
of the contents of these Pandora box-like,
deceptively-rated derivatives. For quality
ratings buyers from across the world relied
upon the long-trusted ratings agencies.
These include Moody's, Fitch, and S&P.
These ratings
agencies have been shown to have issued
tainted ratings due to their vested
interests in the institutions and their products
that were being rated.
In 2008, as major financial institutions including banks
and investment banks were
nearing failure, they were rescued by loans and subsidies
from
the US Federal Reserve Bank and the US
Treasury. Each recipient of emergency
funding accepted and held much of the cash
infusions. They refuse to lend
to other institutions or to consumers. They
must retain these multi-billion dollar cash
infusions because it is this new cash in
many cases that is allowing them to continue
operating and remain solvent.
This leaves
consumers and businesses -- including those
with the highest credit standings -- with
few to no sources of short-term operating funds.
Consumers have difficulty borrowing to
buy homes and automobiles. Businesses have
difficulty borrowing to meet payrolls
and for payments to vendors.
Consumers'
ability to borrow supersedes their desire to
purchase goods and services. The quality,
style and functionality of automobiles is
irrelevant to a potential buyer when he
cannot get credit for the car of his dreams
or the truck for his business. |
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Since at least 1999,
warnings that excessive risk was being taken
on by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie
Mae via sub-prime mortgages were sounded by The New York Times,
US Congressmen, and several authors of
financial books and articles.
Today even Iceland, known
for its closed society and clean living is
experiencing near default conditions of its
national treasury and major financial
institutions. Iceland's situation is due to defaulting
US-based sub-prime
mortgages and the now-frozen credit markets'
unwillingness to trade Iceland's -- or any
-- unmarketable derivatives.
Today General Motors and
other manufacturers have difficulty selling
cars to even the most credit worthy potential buyers because
credit markets are locked shut. If
the US automobile industry
is further decimated and forced into bankruptcy
and liquidation, the US automobile industry will
follow the
US electronics industry of 20
years ago. That is, it will be a small
fraction of what it was and become a parts
supplier for foreign manufacturers. It will
be only foreign manufacturers who sell finished
automobiles and related products to Americans.
But how will
Americans earn the good salaries necessary to buy all those
electronic
products and the
foreign-manufactured automobiles... and how
will Americans buy food,
clothing and shelter?
The answer is from their
government. The new US government appears pleased to have made
all Americans subservient paupers groveling
for scraps, low wage jobs, and sharing their
lost wealth with the world's other failed
and never-once-successful people.
GM's
near-bankruptcy condition
is linked directly to decades
of unworthy home borrowers
demanding money and today defaulting in
massive numbers on their
commitments.
When there is no
confidence, there is little lending. When
there is little lending, businesses shut
down. When businesses shut down, people lose
jobs.
This situation may seem
unbelievable to you reading this example of
good-natured American generosity gone awry.
US government legislated and mandated
lending to unworthy home-borrowers is
resulting in many unworthy people defaulting. That there could be so
many unworthy borrowers in America seems
obscene and antithetical to the American
work ethic. How might there be so many
Americans who purchased homes, signed
contracts promising to repay the money, and
now simply defaulting and
walking away from their homes -- and
obligations?
Welcome to the
New America wherein large numbers of people
who are unworthy borrowers are also unworthy
Americans.
If you do
business today, do not be fooled into
trusting in contracts, promises, handshakes, or smiles. Even bank wire
transfers are not solidly irreversible. Cash
only & beware of counterfeit. For checks, allow at least five business days
for any check to clear before delivering
goods & services.
We live in a
Crisis Of Confidence in
banking and in all finance and
personal interaction.
Today cash is
only backed by the "full faith and credit of the
United States". You decide how much longer
that will be worthy of your trust.
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