Straight

How & Why The World Went Bust



The global financial system has been broken by a deadbeat minority of the population that was given clear access to borrow large sums without regard for credit history and with little to no documentation. Their credit unworthiness and unjustifiable borrowing was legitimatized by the US Congress through social legislation mandating suspension of traditional bank credit-worthiness standards of lending. The lending process was enabled by automation created by overly-empowered, computer-enabled financial and political operatives conniving while being monitored by inadequate dynamic oversight. The factual substance & time frame of today's global bankruptcy can be comprehended. It is described below.

This Ponzi scheme impacts everyone:  Unqualified buyers contract for cheap housing money  >  Banks & mortgage makers  >  FNM + FRE + GNM  >  Investment banking packages these assets into ABSs  >  CDOs  >  Ratings agencies up-rate these instruments  >  Banks & sovereign funds & hedge funds & national treasuries around the world purchase these instruments  >  Purchasers add on quasi-insurance plans, credit default swaps, CDSs  >  CDS counter-party failures end the scheme  >  Credit markets lock  >  Government bailouts start the nationalization process  >  Financial institutions too big to fail, fail  >  Counter-parties fail to meet commitments.
Ponzi schemes require input from active participants and passive ongoing acceptance by investors. This housing credit Ponzi scheme also required active ongoing participation of new buyers at the output end. Both groups vanished: There were no longer any remotely-qualified mortgage takers. Moreover, potential buyers of CDOs and CDSs perceived the failing nature of this scheme, banks stopped lending, and credit vanished.
This Ponzi scheme started to fail in 2006. It stopped working and the derivative flow slowed and began its downward cascade in 2007. The downward cascade accelerated in 2008, when housing valuations declined, there were few takers remaining for cheap housing money, and those who had taken the cheap housing money began defaulting in large numbers.

Consider:  According to the Yale economist Robert Schiller, from 1890 through 2004, residential real estate rose 66% in real terms. That is on average, 0.4% per year. Between 1997 through 2005, residential real estate valuations increased 52%, or 6.2%  per year in real terms. US housing values do not always increase.

The Process Of Going Bust Is The Process Of Damaging Confidence & Locking Credit Markets
Credit-unworthy borrowers contract for sub-prime mortgages & loans on inflating home prices.
Banks & other lenders sell mortgages to government sponsored entities, Fannie, Freddie, & Ginnie Mae.
Investment banks purchase packages of mortgages & securitize them often with several tranches. Rating agencies up-rate securitized derivatives & tranches.
Investors across the world purchase securitized derivatives that often have complex tranche structures & mal-estimated ratings. Credit default swaps are purchased.
Sub-prime mortgage & loan holders default in relatively large numbers lowering derivative valuations & eventually damaging institutional counter-party confidence & freezing credit markets.
Interest rates were held low. Interest rates trend upward, mortgages reset, defaults begin.

1.) Credit-unworthy borrowers apply for standard & sub-prime mortgages & loans. 2.) Banks & other lenders write mortgages & loans in return for ownership in over-valued assets contracted by unworthy borrowers. 3.) Banks & other lenders sell sub-prime mortgage & low-grade loans to government sponsored entities. They receive cash to continue lending activities. 4.) Investment banks buy & repackage sub-prime mortgages & low-grade loans with higher-rated mortgages & loans from GSEs. 5.) Rating agencies up-rate computer-devised & packaged derivatives consisting of mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations& loans. 6.) Investing entities including sovereign funds, hedge funds, and varieties of funds around the world, purchase derivatives from investment banks using questionable ratings to judge safety. 7.) Investors around the world purchase credit default swaps for additional safety guarantees. 8.) Sub-prime mortgage & loan holders defaulting increases, lowering valuations on all derivatives, thereby over-activating CDSs. Credit markets, unable to reach consistent valuations, lock shut.
As mortgage holders and loan borrowers default in larger numbers, their non-performing mortgages and loans become an ever-greater proportion of the holding of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, banks, investment banks, sovereign funds, hedge funds, and many investor portfolios. These holdings include mortgages, loans and the derivatives created from them. Derivatives including MBSs, CDOs, & others consist of contrived, variable dispersions of wide ranges of credit qualities. Once defaults start in significant numbers, the flow from banks to investors stops and the chain of credit stops flowing. New credit is not available.

Institutions stop trusting other institutions. Derivatives cannot be valued. Derivatives become tainted and illiquid. Trading slows drastically. Credit markets lose their ability to evaluate old and potential debt. Trading halts. Lending halts. As credit default swaps are activated, they reach untenable valuations.

  Originators and buyers of CDSs cannot reconcile valuations to close positions. Potential consumer and business lending freezes. Economies slow. Industries slow production. Service businesses slow. Companies lay off employees.

GDPs experience slowing growth and declining activity. Recession begins. Business slows further. Growth turns negative. Unemployment increases. Recession gains magnitude. If unemployment becomes large, recession is relabeled depression.

This sort of credit-destruction is seen as deflating a bubble. At some point in the phase, governments initiate artificial changes in interest rates, money quantities, and create lower-paying infrastructure and bureaucratic jobs. Government interference disrupts business activities and labor markets. It forces suspension of natural market-adjustment activities due to anticipation of further intervention combined with recent interventions and their consequences.


The following is further identification of significant participants in the business credit cycle. It presents institutional roles, mechanisms, and responses within the credit-flow chain over recent decades. The world is spiraling downward while being pushed over the brink by the US Federal Reserve Bank and several other national banking entities' attempts at coordinated inflating of money supplies using currencies backed by nothing but additional credit.

Government-chartered entities provide a connection between capital markets and mortgage borrowers. These public corporations and government sponsored entities purchase and securitize mortgages from lenders. That process ensures that capital is consistently available to those lenders for home buyers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raised capital by selling stock to the public and investing institutions.

These government entities were given investor-friendly names derived from the acronyms of their official names. These include Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae, founded in 1938 and chartered by Congress in 1968; the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, known as Freddie Mac, today insolvent, chartered by Congress in 1970.

The Government National Mortgage Association, Ginnie Mae, created in 1968, is the only US agency whose mortgage-backed securities are government guaranteed.

Ginnie Mae is the main supplier of loans for the Federal Housing Administration, FHA. The volume of loans approved for insurance by the Federal Housing Administration increased dramatically over recent years as less credit-worthy borrowers who failed to meet bank borrowing standards flocked to government programs.

Each government sponsored entity uses investor capital (money) to purchase mortgages from banks and other consumer lending businesses such as Countrywide. Those purchases cleared these banks and lenders' books of mortgage liabilities, thereby providing fresh, new money to lend to other worthy and unworthy borrowers.

These government sponsored entities function to acquire mortgages and return capital to the mortgage market.

In 1977, the US Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act, CRA. Its objective was to provide mortgages to less-credit worthy borrowers. This good-natured plan was corrupted by community organizing groups in the name of fairness. However their "fairness" did not fully factor in "credit worthy" as a borrowing prerequisite. This activity spawned the now-infamous sub-prime mortgage.

Community organizing groups such as ACORN working at the grass roots level pestered, petitioned, extorted, and threatened major banks and their top management with negative publicity and physical injury if they failed to accede into lending to people who could not qualify under reasonable lending standards. Major banks and mortgage houses were forced to lend to uncredit-worthy people in the name of equal and fair housing opportunities.

Unworthy borrowers were handed billions of dollars with little to no documentation. There were borrowers whose documentation displayed in simple arithmetic their inability to pay down their obligations.

  The mortgages purchased by the government sponsored entities were then packaged by investment banking institutions. These institutions included HSBC, Lehman, Credit Suisse, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, and others. They used computer systems designed by financial miscreants and programmed by physicists and engineers to slice & dice mortgages and debts into complex, multi-tranched derivatives of indeterminate qualities. These collateralized and securitized instruments were then variously rated to support their sale to inadequately-informed and misinformed investors including hedge funds to sovereign funds and every type in between.

The US Federal Reserve Bank held interest rates artificially low. This allowed financial assets and housing assets to become inflated into the shape of many classic financial bubbles.


After years of this taking-in of new mortgage debt from banks and mortgage brokers, repackaging it into mortgage-backed securities (MBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDO), surreptitiously insured by credit default swaps (CDS), the credit system collapsed when too many unworthy people failed to meet their payment obligations.

Domestic and foreign investors were drawn to the full faith and credit implied and explicitly guaranteed by the US government. National banks, treasuries, and individual and institutional investors each and all purchased varieties and tranches of derivatives over recent years.

Major financial institutions in all industrialized nations and several national treasuries are today near-insolvent due the illiquid and near-worthless valuations of derivatives such as MBSs and CDOs they purchased.

Buyers of mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations were unaware of the contents of these Pandora box-like, deceptively-rated derivatives. For quality ratings buyers from across the world relied upon the long-trusted ratings agencies. These include Moody's, Fitch, and S&P.

These ratings agencies have been shown to have issued tainted ratings due to their vested interests in the institutions and their products that were being rated.

In 2008, as major financial institutions including banks and investment banks were nearing failure, they were rescued by loans and subsidies from the US Federal Reserve Bank and the US Treasury. Each recipient of emergency funding accepted and held much of the cash infusions. They refuse to lend to other institutions or to consumers. They must retain these multi-billion dollar cash infusions because it is this new cash in many cases that is allowing them to continue operating and remain solvent.

This leaves consumers and businesses -- including those with the highest credit standings -- with few to no sources of short-term operating funds. Consumers have difficulty borrowing to buy homes and automobiles. Businesses have difficulty borrowing to meet payrolls and for payments to vendors.

Consumers' ability to borrow supersedes their desire to purchase goods and services. The quality, style and functionality of automobiles is irrelevant to a potential buyer when he cannot get credit for the car of his dreams or the truck for his business.

  Since at least 1999, warnings that excessive risk was being taken on by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae via sub-prime mortgages were sounded by The New York Times, US Congressmen, and several authors of financial books and articles.

Today even Iceland, known for its closed society and clean living is experiencing near default conditions of its national treasury and major financial institutions. Iceland's situation is due to defaulting US-based sub-prime mortgages and the now-frozen credit markets' unwillingness to trade Iceland's -- or any -- unmarketable derivatives.

Today General Motors and other manufacturers have difficulty selling cars to even the most credit worthy potential buyers because credit markets are locked shut. If the US automobile industry is further decimated and forced into bankruptcy and liquidation, the US automobile industry will follow the US electronics industry of 20 years ago. That is, it will be a small fraction of what it was and become a parts supplier for foreign manufacturers. It will be only foreign manufacturers who sell finished automobiles and related products to Americans.

But how will Americans earn the good salaries necessary to buy all those electronic products and the foreign-manufactured automobiles... and how will Americans buy food, clothing and shelter?

The answer is from their government. The new US government appears pleased to have made all Americans subservient paupers groveling for scraps, low wage jobs, and sharing their lost wealth with the world's other failed and never-once-successful people.

GM's near-bankruptcy condition is linked directly to decades of unworthy home borrowers demanding money and today defaulting in massive numbers on their commitments.

When there is no confidence, there is little lending. When there is little lending, businesses shut down. When businesses shut down, people lose jobs.


This situation may seem unbelievable to you reading this example of good-natured American generosity gone awry. US government legislated and mandated lending to unworthy home-borrowers is resulting in many unworthy people defaulting. That there could be so many unworthy borrowers in America seems obscene and antithetical to the American work ethic. How might there be so many Americans who purchased homes, signed contracts promising to repay the money, and now simply defaulting and walking away from their homes -- and obligations?

Welcome to the New America wherein large numbers of people who are unworthy borrowers are also unworthy Americans.

If you do business today, do not be fooled into trusting in contracts, promises, handshakes, or smiles. Even bank wire transfers are not solidly irreversible. Cash only & beware of counterfeit. For checks, allow at least five business days for any check to clear before delivering goods & services.

We live in a Crisis Of Confidence in banking and in all finance and personal interaction.

Today cash is only backed by the "full faith and credit of the United States". You decide how much longer that will be worthy of your trust.

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