Thoughts For Today's Discussions

Facts, Skepticism & Realities
 
 
Over-blown on the way up and over-deflated on the way down means there are always ways to make profits.

The world has ventured deep enough into the new millenium that it is beyond trite to refer to our day as a part of the new millenium.  The reality is that human psychology now demands an adjustment from the 'future' to the reality of the present.

Possibly March of 2000 will be noted in the history books as the point when markets realized something was rotten in the state of cyberspace.

But It's Too Late:  The Distracting Sex Appeal Of Cyberspace Has Vanished

Excesses continued too long.  Natural laws of economics have been forestalled too long behind a dam of misunderstanding built and jury-rigged daily by the financial media and accepted by an under educated populace of pseudo-economists each fancying himself as being a participant in the "New Economy" with complete understanding of vast new frontiers.

Those vast new frontiers are starting to be perceived as the same old new frontiers that are ushered forth periodically by leaps in technology.   Gutenburg's printing press, McCormick's reaper, Marconi's radio, Ford's automobile, Einstein's atomic theory each set stages for leaps forward.  But those leaps do not materialize instantly upon each of these geniuses' whispering of their products.  Time must pass for assimilation first by the Top 1% and then by the hordes of workers able to utilize the simplified new technologies.

But it is too late.  Capital markets now perceive the "New Economy" as the same old New Technology Game.  Sure it's great and will be even better, but not because economic laws have been rewritten or human psychology has changed.  And accordingly the human psychology that over pumped the "New Economy" will deflate it with abandon, impunity and total disregard for the feelings and needs of individuals.  Individuals and businesses will be swept away in the usual torrent of too many exiting at the same time through a narrow passageway.

The Next Bottom Line:

Bond and stocks markets will recede.   Euphoria-based technology 'companies' based upon the axiom, "It can be done technologically, therefore we will do it", will be forced to see that there is no practical need for the "products" they attempted to deliver over the Internet.  Good companies that over-extended debt to blindly keep pace with an invalid technology will declare financial bankruptcy, thereby implicitly admitting to having been intellectually bankrupt in the first place.

The euro has shown signs of bottoming in early November, 2000.  The U. S. presidential election as awakened the world to the reality that without character, moral standards and leadership even the United States Constitution is impotent.  The U. S. dollar can weaken in relation to the euro.  Japan has economic problems that continue to go unresolved and not seriously unacknowledged as being potentially disastrous.  Terrorism festers as monsters become empowered by their own dark application of technology yielding discrete results but instilling underlying disruptive fears everywhere.

Our Best Hope Is The Future:

But new opportunities will be available to those wise enough --- and still wealthy enough --- to invest in them.

Do You Remember Those Other "New Economy" Opportunites?
  March 3, 1928 September 3, 1929 November 13, 1929
Radio Corporation of America 94-1/2 505 28
Montgomery Ward 132-3/4 466-1/2 49-1/4
And then they went lower during the Great Depression years.

But fear not:  If the 1929 buyers were still alive in the 1960s, they could have sold and broke even.

 

Question:

Were you aware of this before?

Yes

No, but it sure makes sense now that you explained it.

Of course.  Do you think I am uneducated?

 

The investment axiom that is always valid:  Caveat Emptor
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